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Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or a cause of the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When the England international curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?

This is a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the victories have stacked up.

According to the data, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker may begin to scoring again.
• The winger might become the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.

This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.